It’s been over a year and we still don’t know the origins of COVID-19. Barring the leaking or release of Chinese records, we likely never will. Consensus has converged on one thing, though. Just about everybody now admits—despite earlier, strenuous, and probably disingenuous denials of the possibility—that it’s at least as likely that the pandemic resulted from a lab leak as it is that it resulted from the virus jumping between species naturally. Many believe that Occam’s Razor points strongly at the lab leak as being more likely but it’s hard for those of us who aren’t virologists to make a scientifically informed judgment.
I do think it’s reasonable, though, for the man-on-the-street to have an opinion on a related question: Should we doing gain-of-function research in the first place? It’s a matter of considerable controvery even in the scientific community. There are three salient facts:
- The cost of a lab accident in human lives could be huge or even existential.
- Lab accidents are frighteningly common.
- As far as I can see, no one can point at any concrete advantages that have accrued from the research.
To the extent that those three statements reasonably reflect reality, it’s hard to reach any conclusion other than that such research should be ended immediately. To be sure, that would be asking those who do such research to give up their research programs and maybe even their life’s work but if the choice is between that and another pandemic like COVID-19, it’s an easy choice.
Sadly, far from suspending or even slowing down such research while we examine the risks and benefits, the US federal government under the leadership of Anthony Fauci and Francis Collins has removed some of the safeguards previously put in place and are proceeding apace. When Collins was asked why he removed safeguards he replied that he was “not able to fully reconstruct” the details. That sounds like political speak to me.
On a question like this, I’m not willing to accept “trust the experts.” If you can’t spell out why this research isn’t an existential threat then you should stop doing it. Full stop.